i now admit my earlier prediction that this game wouldn't last 6 months is wrong. why? one thing. it isn't the vast amounts of beta testers. or the preorders being cancelled due to lack of boxes. in this instance a game i used to hate and vilify is a better judge of the viability of this game and the industry as a whole. WOW. the fact that WOW lost a considerable amount of subs when TOR hit beta says more for the possible future of the game than anything else.
looks like i have to admit that after all the crappy games claiming to be the one that could dethrone WOW...this WOW clone is the first one that actually stands a shot at doing it. and make no mistake about it. TOR IS a WOW clone. if you strip it down to its basic components its just another thin and shallow themepark game. its chances for success have nothing to do with polish,voice overs,quest choices, or any of the other highly touted features. none of these can carry a game. they're just icing on the cake. its all about the star wars experience. those of you who defend the shallow "safe" themepark design that bioware have chosen really need to stop beating us non believers over the head with "but its got story!" "and quest choices!" because we both know that the real reason you love the game so much is its star wars...period. and hey there's nothing wrong with that. we recently saw the article about the different reasons why TOR could fail. i actually came to the game's defense cause those were the stupidest reasons ever.
the only reason this game stands a good chance of failing is the same reason all the other WOW clones failed. a design philosophy deeply rooted in the idea of stealing another game's playerbase. that said its actually the first game that has blizzard sweating. the only other game that had a chance to dethrone WOW was lotro. and it was a sight the day that open beta ended and the majority of the players abandoned the game to go back to WOW. i guess when open beta for TOR ends we'll see if they stick around. anyway enough meandering. my modified predictions:
3-4 months post launch: EAware will trumpet success at stealing a million players from WOW. but it wont be enough to satisfy EA's legion of doom management. or pay back the 200 million investment. the fist signs of boredom will start to show on the forums. if EA lets them post and not ban them.
6-8 months post launch: still not happy with a actual success EA will push out a lifetime sub. the subs will start to shrink as the star wars euphoria wears off and people start to realize they are just playing WOW in space. at the same time blizzard will get back many players by announcing a expansion.
1 year post launch: with the WOW expansion along with boredom taking a hit on subs they will then stab the lifetimers in the back by going FTP+RMT. doesnt matter though. anyone who buys a lifetime sub in a game that depends on regular income to support constant content updates gets what they deserve.
well only time will tell if im close to right. flame on!